An analysis of Canadian oil expansion economics

In summary, the studies under review suffer from numerous weaknesses including: 1. The specification of a fixed, and relatively low, exchange rate assumption when empirical evidence clearly indicates increasing oil prices lead to an appreciation of the Canadian dollar; 2. The failure to recognize the impact an appreciation of the Canadian dollar has on oil producer profitability and investment dec [...] Raw, rapid resource extraction and export of crude oil, with complete disregard to the economic needs and environmental aspirations of the rest of the country is like—well, watching a cannibal eat with a knife and fork and being told its progress.6 2. The Reports The figures publicly cited by industry proponents and government supporters are sourced from: 1. Enbridge's Application to the National [...] The ability of the oil industry to achieve the rapid expansion of oil sands production as predicted in the CAPP forecast, and expanded to 2035 by Wright Mansell, is examined by David Hughes in his report to the NEB. [...] The absence of an energy security strategy for Canada, and the threat to Canadians that a rapid rate of extraction and export implies—and as contemplated by the CAPP forecast—are discussed.22 This review limits itself to addressing the exchange rate assumed in the Enbridge documents to show how it relates to the achievability of the aggressive supply projections. [...] Ignoring the dynamic impact of our dollar on the profitability and rate of expansion of the oil sands overstates supply, and unrealistically exaggerates the benefits case.