cover image: A comparative anatomy of oil price routs

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A comparative anatomy of oil price routs

18 Nov 2015

The choice of the starting points for the first two is somewhat arbitrary but generally agrees with the literature; for the latter two, it starts at the date of the highest price prior to the rout, July 3, 2008 and June 20, 2014. [...] The price decline of 2000/2001 occurred in the wake of the Asian financial crisis, the 1997/1998 oil price crash and the dotcom crash of 2000, leading to the (disputed) recession the following March. [...] The one-day peak price before the rout had less relevance to the market and industry than did the average of the price over the three months leading up to that turning point. [...] This approach most affects the decline curve for the 2008 crash when prices had been rapidly rising; thus, the average price over the three months prior to July 3, 2008 (when the market turned) was $125 rather than the $145 on that date (thus, on the graph, the price rises for three weeks relative to the average base price before declining). [...] On the technical side, the international oil industry’s pursuit of exploration ideas in offshore regions based on the new geologic model of plate tectonics led to major discoveries in, for example, the North Sea; the resulting surge in supply added to the weak demand’s squeeze on the call on OPEC supply.
politics economics economy financial market recession petroleum canada business government policy investments petroleum products prices demand economic sector mortgage opec oil price oil consumption macroeconomic crude business finance loan market financial economy of canada price of oil petroleum industry and trade financial crisis of 2007–2008 tight oil drilling rig contango

Authors

Skinner, Robert

Pages
37
Published in
Ottawa, Ontario

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