cover image: A coming revenue crunch?

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A coming revenue crunch?

6 Sep 2007

To determine a single overall grade for each province, we first construct three separate subgrades: • a measure of the fiscal health of each province just before the tabling of the fiscal year 2006/07 budget in spring 2006; • a measure of the fiscal accuracy, or transparency, of the 2005/06 budget, which allows us to assess how the province has adhered to its 2005/06 budget forecast according to t [...] Introduction This study, a shared venture by the Atlantic Institute for Market Studies (AIMS) and the Frontier Centre for Public Policy, is the first to evaluate the spring budgets of the four western provinces and Ontario. [...] Accordingly, we assign a fiscal health grade, which is a measure of the state of the province’s fiscal finances for the year 2005/06, prior to the tabling of the spring 2006 budget; this component is worth 40 percent of the total grade. [...] Second, we measure the forecasting error of the numbers in the fiscal year 2005/06 budget as determined by the revised data for 2005/06 contained in the 2006/07 budget. [...] For fiscal year 2006/07, per capita health spending increases in Ontario and Alberta are near the national rate of growth (4.6 percent); the increase in Saskatchewan is larger, at 6.4 percent; in Manitoba, it is below the national average, at 4.0 percent; and in Ontario, the 1.6 percent increase is sharply lower than the national average.
government politics budget public finance economics economy finance recession canada debt economic growth economic policy government policy earnings economic indicator government budget alberta forecasting deficit provincial oil sands growth rate federal budget deficits british columbia western provinces equalization payments transfer payments canadian transfer payments

Authors

Murrell, David

Pages
22
Published in
Canada

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