Review of the year 2002 return of Barkley Sound sockeye salmon and forecasts for 2003 : Bilan des remontées de saumon rouge dans la baie Barkley en 2002 et prévisions pour 2003

Updates on the performance of three of these techniques in the year 2002 are as follows: (1) The SStM forecast exhibits the best overall performance by far with a mean absolute percent error (MAPE) value of 28% over the most recent 15 years of forecasting (Table 5). [...] Migration into the river may be delayed by environmental conditions (Steer and Hyatt 1987), causing the timing of the tail of the run into the Somass River to extend into October. [...] The management of the fisheries targeting these stocks is structured to avoid Henderson Lake sockeye when the forecast of their returns is below the target escapement. [...] Given the comparative performance of the various forecast options up to the year 2001 and DFO's recent pursuit of a more risk averse approach to manageme nt, PSARC recommended the SStM forecast range of 754,000 (75% probability) to 1,101,000 (25% probability) sockeye as the preferred, pre-season forecast for 2002. [...] Approximately 1.1 million sockeye returned to Barkley Sound in 2002 such that observed returns achieved 115% of the SStM forecast, 128% of the SEPB and 66% of the SSM forecasts (Table 4).